Policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks and China’s carbon neutralization

In the present study, it was explored how volatility of carbon neutrality concept index (CNCI) affected by China economic policy uncertainty (CEPU) index, climate (CPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR) index. According to research Amendola et al. GARCH-MIDAS model improved introducing realized kernel stock market into short-term component. On this basis, GARCH-RKV-MIDAS constructed. Meanwhile, both models were applied identify influencing factors for CNCI during period between January 2018 June 2022, with predicted. results, CPU GPR exert a significant effect on long-term CNCI, despite no difference made CEPU CNCI. As prediction volatility, clearly outperforms model. Moreover, in predicting